
An Analysis of Future Three-Year Trends in Pu-erh Tea Market Development
September 14, 2025
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At the moment, most tea merchants are concerned about the future trend of Puer tea market. Everybody knows that the market will change, but nobody knows in what direction it will change. In this article, I'll simply analyze the situation based on several years of market development and changes in current circumstances.
What most tea merchants are concerned about now is the trend of Pu-erh tea market in the future. Everyone knows that the market will change, but no one knows where it will change, so here I'll try to analyze the past few years' development situation combined with the current environmental changes, and if there's anything wrong, please correct me.
In my view, in the next three years or even longer time, Puer tea market will have a phenomenon of "tail and head become narrower, middle part increase, further intense competition".
What is called the tail end, refers to Pu'er tea's low-end market. The "9.99 package old ban chapter" has been played as a joke now, but behind the humorous reality of it all, there lies consumers' disdain and depreciation for low-end teas. When people start to feel disgusted with certain commodities, that is when those commodities are leaving the stage.
Although "9.9 yuan shipped old tea" may not disappear from the market immediately, it is hated by all, and can be inferred that such low-end teas will become less popular with consumers.
Having finished talking about the lower-end teas, let's talk about the higher-end teas from the upper end. Though anything good enough will always find a customer who likes it, there's no telling how long it will take to find them.
Among so many commodities, the relationship between tea and wine is most intimate. When given as a gift they are often paired together, and when presented at table, they will frequently be served together too. Now that people say high-end wine sales have entered winter, it's only to be expected that the same will apply to tea.
Demand for high-end tea will continue to exist, but the scale will change as the external environment changes. The economic situation in this world is obviously not very good, so the size of the high-end tea market will inevitably shrink. Enterprises engaged in relevant products should prepare early.
The good news is that the market share of tea bags and instant tea has been reduced, but the demand for tea consumption remains strong. Therefore, the decreased market share in these two areas will flock to the mid-range segment, roughly in the range of 200-300 yuan. The growth in this segment is a key factor for many tea companies to survive or grow, now it depends on who can laugh triumphantly in this field.