Tea market new pattern: Top-tier tea from famous mountains becomes luxury! Most mountain teas are sure to go down in price.

Three years of mask-wearing have reduced a passionate tea shop boss to nothing more than a shell of his former self.

If the present market trend continues as it is now, the price of Shanhua tea will surely drop.

The market of tea leaves will change into: teas from famous mountains and ancient trees becoming luxury items, and most of the mountain teas becoming more affordable.

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The tea farmer was unable to hold on.

Yesterday, a friend who does tea business in Lincang told me:

Recently, tea farmers have been buying from him at prices that are so low they are thought-provoking compared with spring tea season.

Green tea is now being sold at 1,500 yuan per kilogram. Although I don't know if they have mixed in some Pu-erh tea leaves, the price drop has left me bewildered.

It's spring tea season and farmers refused to lower prices at first, but after only half a year they were no longer able to. Especially those who are close to Iceland.

The tea farmer dared to do so because:

Operating costs are low. Tea farmers tend to ancient tea trees as production materials. The biggest expense for tea farmers is the manual cost of people who fry tea leaves every year. The operating costs of tea leaves are very low.

If there's not enough money, the tea leaves sprout every year, raw material costs are low and can be ignored, and selling at a lower price wouldn't matter. Many tea farmers will sell as long as they're paid.

On the other hand, tea farmers have economic pressure no less than that of tea merchants. The reason why Yunnan Pu-erh has been so hot in recent years is that it's easy to get loans for tea farmers.

If there are several mu of tea gardens at home, the price of tea leaves is okay. It's easy to make a sale for 500,000 or 600,000 yuan.

The tea farmers are getting rich, on one hand building new factories and on the other collecting tea leaves to sell, also raising the prices of original materials from the tea mountains.

However, the loan eventually has to be repaid. With market conditions like this year's, spring tea has cooled off, and tea farmers haven't made enough money from this season's harvests, so they can at least hold out for a few months with their accumulated capital before lowering prices.

But when cash flow runs out and monthly loan repayments are due, the tea farmer has only one way to realize assets - by selling tea. If it can't be sold at high prices, then how can it be sold without cutting prices?

The price can only be cut if it hasn't fallen yet.

And in the future, there will be more mountains that can't hold it.

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Tea shop owner goes to stock room.

The price trend of mountain tea depends on medium and small tea enterprises.

However, most small and medium-sized tea businesses do not have cash flow in hand.

Most tea merchants sell their own stock from the past few years normally. For new teas, as many orders are placed as much tea is made and if there's something liked, some extra will be stored. Like in the previous years, hype of prices for high mountain teas isn't possible.

Some people might think: It's so easy to get a loan these days! And because you have money, tea prices won't drop on the mountain tops!

Three years ago, tea shop owners could have borrowed loans with absolute confidence. In the past few years, there were indeed tea merchants who borrowed money to speculate on land.

But in recent years, most tea shop owners did not have that courage. The market for tea has been fierce competition, many companies are engaged in a price war.

The tea boss lent money and bought tea leaves in, collecting tea with no bounds of glory.

(In spring tea time's mountain environment, tea farmers compete with each other, and the old boss collecting tea also shows his power intentionally or unintentionally.)

When collecting tea and having a sip of tea, the farmer said: "The boss is rich! Collecting so much tea."

The tea farmer's flattery waves came one after another, and the tea master listened with unusual comfort.

But can you sell them off quickly after they're received?

Tea is hard to sell now, and in addition to operating expenses each month, there's another loan interest. Maybe in the end, even the principal borrowed will be wasted on stockpiles.

Currently, tea merchants dare not take loans to store tea. On the contrary, everyone is cutting their brains to reduce inventory and turn it into cash.

Even if they have money, they're not willing to risk their business by auctioning off the best teas.

Over the past two years, businesses have gotten more transparent about their funding sources and how they're using it. Even tea barons are less showy with their wealth these days.

The auction's popularity was also dampened by the tea community.

Some have distinct flavors but overall quality is mediocre, and mountains of hype built up. The price can't support it.

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Famous mountains have old trees; it's not because a famous mountain has a fall.

The new trend of tea mountain in the next few years:

Top-grade tea leaves' top-grade materials will never decrease in price and may even rise slightly.

High-quality tea prices in old tea areas will also tend to stabilize. Most mountain teas' prices will come down.

Famous mountain peak's top level ancient tree, a single iron plate

Mengshan tea has been cultivated for over 10 years and Mengshan's high-end ancient tree tea has long exceeded the scope of agricultural products, becoming a luxury commodity in the tea circle.

Such rare and precious trees as Iceland Pine, Old-Banyan Tree and Paeonia suffruticosa have become a must-have for tea aficionados. To get these top-of-the-line teas, one still has to be prepared to bid high.

This kind of rare tea will not be affected by market trends, and may even slightly increase in price. However, teas from famous mountains, such as old trees or middle-sized trees that are adjusted according to the market, will have prices fluctuating with the market.

High-quality residential area with stable prices.

Channels of circulation include small tea merchants selling to friends nearby, as with the tea trees outside Old Ban Zhang, outside Old Sheng Xiang and the rare Yunnan Pu-erh.

Whoever has a circle of friends around them will have at least one person drinking high-end tea. This type of tea, despite being consumed through the small tea merchant multi-channel mode, still tends to be stable in price. Some excellent mountains may see a slight increase (only old tree prices are stable).

But the smaller trees on these second-line mountains are the biggest headache for tea bosses. In the future, there is a high possibility that the smaller trees on these second-line mountains will be developed into products like black tea, white tea and oolong tea by the market.

There are still some market gaps for high-end teas in these categories that will be gradually filled over the next few years.

Most peaks can't afford the prices.

Most other mountain peaks will certainly hold out if prices can be maintained. After all, high prices are hard to come by.

Over the past few years, a lot of money has been made on tea grown on mountains. Riding the wave of this trend, prices for these teas rose from several hundred yuan to two or three thousand yuan.

Tea farmers are also blinded by the benefits of the times, thinking that our village is as close to Iceland and that we should at least be in a town. Our old village has 90,000 trees per mu and my single tree sells for 6,000 yuan.

Business is booming, just when the tea shop owner bought some tea and the tea farmer also thinks his tea is worth that price.

Actually, even when there is a slight stir in the market, those who get knocked down first will be trampled to death.

In short, market follows supply and demand. Top-grade ancient trees in major mountains and high-quality ones in small areas will never be cheap.

As for other tea leaves, they will not decrease as long as they can support, but now many people are unable to.

There will be even more people who can't hold on in the future.

The arrival of Douyin has even more possibility of reducing tea prices.

Many live streaming tea sellers don't drink tea, but they can sell it. People of this kind want to collaborate with a well-known tea brand, the brands are unwilling because these online stars may disrupt their price and harm the interests of distributors, causing the distributors to collectively protest.

They have to cooperate with a tea farmer, it doesn't matter if he knows or not about tea. He just starts by making an ID card for the farm and sets a lower price than anyone else.

In a fiercely competitive tea market: live streaming is cheap, farmers have surplus stocks. I wish that livestreaming could bring down the price of tea (some channels really do offer good and affordable tea).

Actually now, the tea market prices have been pulled down a bit by Douyin (how did your clients slip away? They went to buy cheaper in the live stream).

But now, it's still not enough. We need a bigger flame.

In closing:

Tea prices are always stuck, only a few people can afford it.

Even now, tea farmers and tea merchants are targeting high-end clients, making it harder to sell their tea.

Some people mock a business that empties 6 wallets, is it normal? The same reasoning goes for a business that piles up tea leaves in warehouses and tea lovers can't afford to drink them, can they grow large?

Only good tea with high quality, sold at low prices, can make customers drink it and appreciate the beauty of Pu-erh. Only then can the market expand.

The brick owner who does not eat human food, will say that the tea price is too low and it's not good for people to enjoy their hard-earned happiness. Is RMB6000 per kilogram of tea expensive? Do you know how difficult it is to pick tea leaves? A pot of tea only costs 48 yuan, is it expensive? You can buy one with 3000 yuan a month and two in two months.

It's only fair to say that the bricks have a point. After all, every person has his or her own crosses to bear.

But whether a cycle is good or not, production and sales are just that. The market has its own rules, people can't change the rule of the market.

Especially Pu-erh tea industry is not big and small.